As 2020 heads into its twilight we’ve decided “What the heck! Let’s go all-in on some predictions!”. As the great Ferris Bueller once said, “Only the meek get pinched, the bold survive.” Without further adieu, here are our predictions for three of the biggest remaining products players are waiting for.
Next Gen
While it may be considered by many to be the last round of consoles released by Playstation and Xbox, it certainly isn’t the end of their battle for control of player loyalty. If there was ever a time for players to switch from one platform to another, this is it. While the Xbox Series X and PS5 both come in at a whopping $499, both are beasts compared to their predecessors. The PS5 looks to have the lead in the ‘next gen’ battle and we estimate 2020 US sales for the console to be 1.5M-1.7M units. The Xbox Series X is estimated to slightly trail its nemesis with 1M-1.1M units before the year is out.
But don’t take Xbox out of the running just yet. The Xbox Game Pass has been the talk on sub-channels all year and it appears to be paying off. When we dig in a bit to see who is buying, Xbox comes out way ahead with the 30 and under crowd. 53% of Xbox Series X buyers indicated they are 30 and under compared to just 30% of PS5 buyers. Xbox seems to have the power of the youth on its side. In addition, Xbox has smartly made a play for the price-conscious gamer with a new Xbox Series S as well. At $299 the Xbox Series S is a baller and we expect it to make up the difference.
Winner: Xbox
How long is too long?
Cyberpunk 2077 is coming November 19th and it looks like players are a little reluctant when it comes to making a commitment to purchasing the game. First announced in 2012 (no, that’s not a typo), it’s been in development so long that CD Project Red finally took the route of the annoyed parent tired of being asked “When’s dinner?” and curtly responded, “When it’s ready.”
Since its announcement, there have been several asset drops that have created considerable excitement among fans, but at some point, consumers grow weary and the shiny object just becomes another dangly thing hanging on the rear view mirror. At one point consumer awareness and intent put the game on the path of being one of the biggest launches ever, but news in September revealed that pre-orders were 31% behind where RDR2 was at a comparable period during its rollout.
We estimate current US pre-orders for the game to be a respectable 1.03M units among gamers 18-54 with PS4 and Xbox One capturing a combined total of approximately 82% of sales. Barring any product issues, we predict the game will add an additional 4.4M-5M units at launch, which 95% of the rest of the market only dreams of.
Winner: The devs...go take a nap!
Ubisoft’s Creed
First teased in April 2019, Assassin’s Creed: Valhalla fans cheered “Tyr!” when the game was revealed at the end of this past April. The trailer was (and still is) stunning and the follow-up gameplay reveal did nothing but build on expectations. The game looks great.
Unfortunately, Ubisoft became mired in sexual accusations against leadership just a few months later and what was shaping up to be the best Assassin’s Creed launch campaign ever quickly became overshadowed by a corporate PR nightmare. By August the game's creative director was fired and all the while Ubisoft quietly released their assets to support their 2020 crowned jewel to little fanfare.
Remarkably, gamers don’t seem to have cared. Our analysis puts US pre-orders to date at approximately 2.1M units, well ahead of Cyberpunk 2077. In addition, we estimate the TAM for launch to be 10.6M players and we expect AC:V to capture 3.5M-4M of that before the year ends.
Winner: Ubisoft?
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